The Climate Prediction Center concludes that “El Nino conditions are present and expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.”
El Nino is, basically, a warming of equatorial sea surface temperatures across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean for an extended period of time. With those conditions having been met, and with a forecast for a continuation in the months ahead, the prospects of a warmer than usual winter for North Dakota increase accordingly.
Right now, the signals are weak but on the rise. Also, says the CPC, “There is an enhanced flow of marine air into western North America, along with a reduced northerly flow of cold air from Canada to the United States. These conditions result in a milder than normal winter across the northern states and western Canada.”
The past two winters the state experienced the effects of La Nina, colder than usual Pacific temperatures that resulted in colder than normal winter in North Dakota and across the northern U.S.
The last El Nino occurred in the winter of 2018-19 and resulted in one of the mildest winter seasons in North Dakota history. The CPC will issue an updated three-month weather outlook and an updated El Nino status later this month.
