MINOT — Expect a continuation of drought conditions that plagued much of North Dakota to occur at least over the western third of the state in 2022. That’s the message contained in the annual Spring Outlook issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
It marks the second consecutive year that forecasters predict prolonged, persistent drought. The drought outlook includes the western third of North Dakota and roughly one-half of the continental United States.
NOAA issues the annual Spring Outlook to provide “local decision makers and emergency managers” advanced warning of conditions to come so that they can began to consider any preparations that might need to be made.
The outlook is not regarded as a certainty because weather conditions can vary, sometimes within a small geographical area. However, as far as the predicted drought area is concerned, the CPC rates the possibility of it happening at greater than 50%. The anticipated continuation, or growth, of drought areas in the latest outlook is unusual.
“With nearly 60% of the continental U.S. experiencing minor to exceptional drought conditions, this is the largest drought coverage we’ve seen in the U.S. since 2013,” says the CPC.
North Dakota is rated as having “equal chances” of average temperatures and precipitation through June, with no indicators favoring above or below-normal numbers in either category.
The Spring Outlook also addresses flood risks throughout the country. The only rivers in the entire United States rated as having “major flood risk potential” is the Red River on North Dakota’s eastern border and the James River in South Dakota.
Snowpack across the state has been shrinking the last several days due to warm temperatures. Most areas are seeing very little evidence of runoff, likely due to dry soil absorbing a slow melt. Temperatures for North Dakota through the end of March are forecast to range from above-normal in the southwest to near-normal for most of the remainder of the state.
