The amount of snowfall that will impact the water level in Lake Sakakawea next summer is tracking below minimum levels established from 1991-2020 record keeping. Data from 1999-2020 reflects more recent weather trends believed to be more indicative for long-term comparisons.
The effect of a mild El Nino influenced winter across the northern United States is reflected in an extremely low snowpack throughout the Missouri River Basin during the initial stages of accumulation. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers measures snowpack water content throughout the winter season which traditionally peaks near April 17.
Thus far, as of December 27, the snow water content measurable “above Fort Peck” in Montana, considered the Rocky Mountain snowpack, is a mere 3.3 inches which is 52% of the 1991-2020 average. From “Fort Peck to Garrison” reservoir the measurement is 3.9 inches, 65% of the 1991-2020 average.
The surveyed areas drain into the Missouri and Yellowstone River basins each spring and summer. Less snow generally equates to low water levels in Lake Sakakawea.
However, it must be noted, it is very early in the snowfall accumulation season and weather conditions can change suddenly. The latest 8–14-day precipitation outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center indicates an elevated chance of rain or snow throughout the Missouri River Basin January 5-11, 2024.
Lake Sakakawea’s water level on Friday, December 29, was 1,838.94 feet. Projections show that level dropping to 1,833.9 feet by the end of February 2024. Typically, the target level for reservoir operation on that date is 1,837 feet.
Lake Sakakawea’s annual flood control zone is from 1,839 to 1,850 feet. The spillway level is 1,854 feet. Other major Missouri River mainstem reservoirs, Fort Peck and Lake Oahe, stand at 4.6 feet and 7.8 feet respectively below their annual flood control zone.
