Minot- Between the afternoon of Friday, May 30, and Wednesday, June 4, I surveyed 125 likely voters in Minot, most of whom were polled outside the Auditorium during election hours on Tuesday, June 3. Respondents answered six questions, including their preference for mayor and their opinions on Minot’s current City Council, Governor Kelly Armstrong, Congresswoman Julie Fedorchak, and U.S. Senators John Hoeven and Kevin Cramer.
As with any poll, these results represent a snapshot in time and only reflect the opinions of those who chose to participate. Based on Minot’s estimated population of 46,699 to 47,440, and using the 2020 census figure that 21.1% of residents are under 18, I estimate an eligible voting population between 35,000 and 37,500. For this analysis, I’ve used the lower end (35,000) to remain conservative. With a sample size of 125 voters, the margin of error is approximately ±8.8% at a 95% confidence level (if I did the math right). While the results offer what I believe to be good insight into voter sentiment, they should be interpreted with appropriate caution, and taken with a grain of salt.
The Mayoral Race
- Mark Jantzer- 32%
- Rob Fuller- 28.8%
- Paul Pitner- 15.2%
- Josiah Roise- 9.6%
- Undecided -14.4%
With approximately a 9% margin of error, here are a couple quick takeaways:
- This is anyones race. Combining the undecided voters with the margin of error, there is potentially upwards of 20 points to be had, allowing the race to only heat up as the summer progresses.
- Also at this point, no candidate has secured anywhere near a majority, showing Jantzer leading with less than one-third of the vote at 32%.
- With no majority support for any candidate and a notable undecided bloc, turnout and voter engagement may matter more than persuasion. The winner may not be the one with the broadest appeal, but the one who gets their supporters to the polls.
City Council Approval Rating
- Indifferent/Unsure- 39.5%
- Approve- 30.6%
- Total Disapproval: 29.8%
- Net approval: ~0.9%
Seeing a net wash approval rating, here's some quick takeaways:
- Approval and total disapproval ratings are essentially tied, with public opinion so evenly divided, any misstep, policy miscommunication, or high-profile disagreement could potentially tip the balance into net-negative territory. Conversely, a well-communicated success could be enough to strengthen approval and shore up the Council’s public image.
- Regardless, nearly 2 in 5 respondents are either indifferent or unsure, or more likely, are disengaged and just not paying attention to city council.
- Only 4.8% strongly disapprove, and no respondents strongly approved at all, showing minimal strong feelings either way, reinforcing the prior point.
Key Statewide Figures Approval Ratings in Minot
Net Approval Ratings:
- Governor Kelly Armstrong: +17.1%
- Senator John Hoeven: -4.9%
- Rep. Julie Fedorchak: -8%
- Senator Kevin Cramer: -14.5%
Quite a few takeaways on this one:
- Armstrong's early tenure appears to be popular in Minot, likely due to the property tax relief that was central to this last legislative session. He has both the highest total and net approval numbers, and the lowest disapproval ratings.
- Fedorchak is by far the least known, with a pol high 41.9% of voters saying they were unsure, indifferent, or unfamiliar with her, signaling low name recognition and familiarity being in her first term in Congress.
- Senator John Hoeven drew 37.9% total approval, showing he retains a broad base of support among Minot voters. However, with 42.8% disapproving and a net rating of -4.9%, that support appears to be eroding, even with the margin of error, compared to what it would have been years ago. The nearly even split is also accompanied by the smallest undecided/indifferent rating, showing the highest name recognition of any elected official.
- Cramer came in with the lowest net favorability rating at -14.5% and the highest strongly disapproval with 24.2%, appearing to show some of his support fading, but with over a quarter of pollers indifferent, he still can have a very strong passive base.
- Soft opinions dominate. Across all four officials polled, strong support is minimal and uncertainty/indifference is generally high. This tells us Minot voters aren’t only disengaged, they’re also unconvinced. There’s space to earn their trust, but outside of Armstrong, elected leaders have yet to seize that space.
Be sure to attend our upcoming Mayoral debate Tuesday, June 17 at 6PM at the Mouse River Players Theater in downtown Minot.
