By: Jeff Beach (ND Monitor)
Soybean grower Jim Thompson said there is no way to replace a customer the size of China, but North Dakota farmers have more options than they did in the 2018 Trump administration trade war.
The first Trump administration paid out $23 billion in relief to farmers who suffered a loss of trade because of high tariffs. Most of the North Dakota soybean crop has traditionally been shipped to China, the focal point of ongoing trade negotiations.
According to the North Dakota Soybean Council, 90% of the state’s soybean production leaves North Dakota, with about two-thirds shipped to China and countries in Southeast Asia.
But in recent years, two soybean crushing plants have opened in North Dakota, capable of crushing about half the soybeans grown in the state.
“That’s huge for us, because now we’re not so dependent on China,” Thompson said.
The Green Bison plant at Spiritwood and the North Dakota Soybean Processors near Casselton produce soybean oil for renewable fuels, soymeal for livestock feed and other products.
Thompson, who farms about 50 miles northwest of Fargo, has sold soybeans to the Casselton plant that opened in 2024.
Without the crush plants, “I’d have to think that our local cash price would be suffering quite a bit more than what it is,” Thompson said.
The soybean market has been affected by the tariff policies, said Alan Poock, of the American Soybean Association.
“With all the tariffs and everything going on, the prices have dropped,” Poock said of the soybean market.
Poock is the director of the Asia Division for the World Initiative for Soy in Human Health. He was in Fargo this month as part of a soybean trade team hosting representatives from Cambodia and Kazakhstan.
He emphasized the quality of the soybean grown in the Upper Midwest for livestock feed.
The higher quality, specifically soybeans higher in amino acids, can mean better quality hogs or fish that are fed the soybean meal, Poock said.
“I tell them, ‘Don’t look at the initial sticker cost … Look at your end result,’” Poock said.
Thompson said the trade teams are key to developing alternatives to China.
“You can’t just replace that customer with a couple customers here and there. You need to expand your footprint into many different areas,” Thompson said.
Exporting to small markets comes with some challenges. Poock notes that Kazakhstan is land-locked, so the soybean products will have to go by rail through other countries. Cambodia has ports, but not with the same size and capability of Chinese ports that can take huge shiploads of whole beans.
Poock said Cambodia prefers soybeans to come in a container like those seen on railcars and cargo ships.
The availability of containers and the cost of shipping could be a concern if the trade war drags on, he added
“Right now, things are looking OK, but it seems like every day there’s a new announcement on tariffs or what is going on (with trade),” Poock said. “No one knows what’s going to happen.”
The United States and China last week announced an agreement to temporarily slash the tariffs that had built up in recent weeks as negotiations continue.
The China tariff effect has been delayed somewhat because the U.S. usually sells and ships soybeans to China later in the year.
Nancy Johnson, executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, said this is the time of year when China is buying soybeans from South America, which is finishing up its growing season.
The U.S. and China negotiated what is known as the Phase 1 agreement for soybean trade under the first Trump administration, which is still in place.
While North Dakota has the shortest route of a major soybean growing state to ports on the Pacific, China tariffs are an issue for soybean growers nationwide.
In the most recent marketing year, U.S. exporters shipped 46.1 million metric tons of soybeans to foreign markets, accounting for over $24 billion in sales. Of those exports, nearly 25 million tons of soybeans went to China — 54% of U.S. soybean exports.
Those China exports total $13 billion in value, according to the American Soybean Association.
Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer who is the American Soybean Association president, said in a post on the organization’s website after last week’s trade truce announcement that the 90-day pause on the increased tariffs will end in August — right before the U.S. harvest season.
“We need the administration to continue its negotiations with China to find a long-term, sustainable solution that removes retaliatory tariffs and protects market access for our agricultural products,” Ragland said.
